The composition of tobacco leaves is more complex than you account for, though, dragonslayer.
There are countless varietals which are all cured in different ways.
Each blend is combined in a different and utterly unique combination.
There are different grades of leaf.
So I think there are quite a lot of similarities between tobacco and wine aging.
(Just think about perique and all of the properties it has as opposed to the humble burley leaf it was before it underwent the maturation process. It must be a hotbed of microbiological activity or at least it must have a large effect on the aging of the blend itself because of its differences)
I am not a microbiologist or chemist, though, so my knowledge of the tobacco fermentation process is sorely lacking. I am just looking at it from an outside-in "common sense" perspective that seems to indicate to me that there is an invisible hand at play besides the speed of aging that affects the whole process...
We will never know the answer 100% because there is no money to be made from it, thus no research will be undertaken.
All the same, I think it is always good for us as a group to undertake our own experiments - even if they are fallible and imperfect. That way you can discover your own truths, even if you can't quite convince anyone else of their validity...